Over a week ago now was supposed to be the best day of the year: Opening Day, the glorious beginning of the 2020 baseball season. But, like so many other things (everything), it has been postponed. Major League Baseball first delayed it by two weeks, then decided it should wait at least eight weeks, pushing the earliest potential Opening Day to May 21.
Obviously, it’s for the best, and they’re right to do it. They won’t be back for the near-foreseeable future, as the league and players’ union has recently come to an agreement on, among other things, at what point they would come back to the field. Long story short, they’ll be waiting for the expiration of three things: bans on gathering, restrictions on travel, and warnings from medical experts. Makes total sense.
As disappointed as I am in not having a baseball season by now, I’m endlessly fascinated by the implications of knocking two months out of a seven-plus month season. (NOTE: I don’t appear to be the only one who felt this way, as I discovered this very good article in the course of writing.) This presents some truly interesting scheduling issues. By starting the season in mid-may, teams would be missing almost a third of their original schedule. For instance, if the Mets opened on May 21 with no changes to their schedule, they would have missed 49 games, leaving 113.
In the past, only because of war, strikes, or lockouts has baseball played on a reduced schedule. In 1981, teams ended up playing between 103 and 112 games because of a mid-season strike; in 1994, the season was canceled in mid-August after teams had played roughly 114 games, with a strike lasting long enough to necessitate a 144-game season in 1995.
So what does MLB do? What they definitely won’t do, I’m fairly certain, is leave the schedule as-is and begin the playoffs as originally planned on September 29 with the World Series starting on October 20. That just doesn’t make sense at this point. Even adding a week or two to the end of the season wouldn’t help much, as that would push the playoffs back.
Since 2018, teams have played 162 games in 187 days, from March until September. That’s 25 off days a year or an average of about one a week. Would they still try to adhere to that? And how much Late-Spring Training would they need?
I can see a couple ways to handle this, depending on the scenario. Of course, the Worst-Case Scenario is that the 2020 season is wiped out completely (although, let’s face it, 2020 is great so far at finding unthinkable Worst-Case Scenarios). But let’s start here:
Best-Case Scenario
A May Opening Day
May 21-September 30: 19 weeks, or 133 days
May 21-October 31: 23.4 weeks, or 164 days
By some miracle, social distancing actually works much better than anticipated, and the season really does start on or near May 21. At this point, teams would have roughly 110-115 games remaining on their original schedules, leaving the season on par with that of 1981, numbers-wise. The easiest thing to do would be to leave the original schedule unchanged, then, like I mentioned earlier, add another week or so of games–the number could vary since teams would be starting at slightly different points in their calendars. Or, instead of adding to the end of the season, MLB could schedule doubleheaders between teams who had games canceled, most likely intradivision games, leaving interdivision games mostly alone. For example, the Mets and Nationals were supposed to open things up last week in New York then meet again this week in DC. Fortunately, they play 13 more times this year. So, add a doubleheader to each series, and throw in an extra game on the off days surrounding these future series. That easily makes up for two lost series.
Then, the league could start playoffs somewhat close to their original start dates, and lost revenue is kept to a relative minimum.
The playoffs themselves, as currently structured, require at least 29 days…or 23 days in the unlikely event the league cuts out mid-series travel days (1, 5, 7, 7, plus travel days between them).
Frankly, I would say that this scenario is not very likely at all. The virus is still getting worse and spreading more, by all accounts, so if the season gets off the ground at all, it’d more likely be in June at the very earliest (and that’s not including any kind of Spring Training Part II). While baseball has played into November in the past, outside of exclusively using domed or neutral-site southern stadiums (which appears to be part of negotiations), I can’t see them actually going down that route.
Other (Very Hypothetical) Scenarios
A June Opening Day
June 1-October 31: ~21.8 weeks, or 153 days
So let’s say the league does get the all-clear to start back up at the beginning of June. At that point, it would have been almost three months since teams stopped training on March 12. There would probably have to be two weeks (at the very, very minimum) of Summer Training, let’s call it, to get everyone back on the same page, and ideally Opening Day becomes June 21. That leaves 133 days to complete a championship season.
That’s very feasible. The league wants at least a 100-game season. The union wants 3-5 off days a month per club, so let’s say that means 17 (one in June, average of four in July, August, September, and October), which leaves 116 game days for each team. The league is also looking at doing one doubleheader a week per team, so let’s call that 20 just for the sake of an even number. So pulling out all the stops, each team could conceivably play 136 games. It’d be a hell of slog, yeah, but they could do it, and the league could even hold an All-Star Game in early August, maybe on just a two-day break.
Going back to the Mets as an example, according to the current schedule, from June 21 to the end of September, they have 86 games. So, I think in such a scenario, the league has to create a brand new schedule. My theory as to what that looks like:
– 18 versus each division team (72)
– 6 versus each non-division league team (60)
– 4 versus a geographic interleague rival (Mets vs Yankees, Cubs vs White Sox, Marlins vs Rays, etc.)
(I’m assuming here that interleague games are out the window in a rescheduled season–or, at least, they would be if MLB hadn’t realigned into two 15-team leagues. That’s a complaint for another post, but I think the league office would drop the current matchups in favor of a low-travel, high-attendance, home-and-home interleague series.)
That gives us 136, right on the nose. It would be the toughest schedule in recent history, no doubt. If you were able to squeeze the Wild Card Games onto October 30 through some creative end-of-season off days, the World Series would be over by November 28 at the absolute latest. But, the important thing is that it could work.
A July Opening Day
July 1-October 31: ~17.5 weeks, or 123 days
All right, now, let’s say July rolls around and teams are finally able to get back on the field. I think the league still leaves about 20 days for teams to get back into shape; again, it would be tough, but they could do it. Opening Day becomes July 21, giving MLB 103 days in which to have games. Mandatory once-a-week doubleheaders are scheduled, probably without any weekly deviations, so that’s 17 per team. Off days, I would have to imagine, would be scaled back to an average of three per month, plus one in July, putting teams at 10 off days total; then again, that makes the schedule 9.7% off days, whereas in a normal season, off days would be about 13% of the calendar, so I could see them bumping it up to at least 12.
Doing the math: 103 total days, minus 12 travel days, plus 17 doubleheaders puts the season at 108 games. That’s roughly on par with the 1981 season! So there’s certainly a precedent for having such a shortened season (and baseball loves a precedent). A schedule breakdown for this kind of season might look like:
– 14 versus each division team (56)
– 48 versus other non-division league team (maybe 6 versus each team in one division, plus 18 unbalanced against the other division)
– 4 versus a geographic interleague rival (this, barring any extreme scheduling giving teams three days off in a row, is a given no matter what because of the nature of the 15-team leagues)
This is where things start to get a little weird (as if this whole thing wasn’t already). In an ideal world, a “balanced” interdivisional schedule would have 60 interdivisional games comprised of three games at home and three on the road versus the other ten league teams. If we drop 12 of those, the league could still do a home-and-home series against one division, and then they could mix and match in the other division.
The Mets, for example, could play the NL Central home-and-home. They could play the NL West like this: Rockies and Diamondbacks on the road, Dodgers and Giants at home, and the Padres could be home-and-home. If those are all three-game series, there’s our 18. Honestly, looking at it like that, it seems like a pretty elegant solution.
When the season is over, though, the playoff format becomes interesting. With the season losing 54 games–literally a third of the schedule–owners certainly would be looking for other ways to generate more revenue. And, most likely, players and pundits alike would be complaining that the typical 10-team playoff is no way to determine a champion when teams haven’t proven themselves over the course of a normal season. So if the season starts in July, I think MLB would propose (and push forward with) their weird new playoff scheme: seven teams from each league would make the playoffs (three division winners and four wild cards) and the Wild Card Round would be a best-of-three series in which the top division winner has a bye, the other division winners choose the wild card teams they want to play, and the top wild card team would play the remaining wild card team. Sound confusing? Yeah. So were this July Opening Day to happen, I’d expect MLB to use it as a backdoor trial for their complicated playoff expansion proposal.
Even if they don’t give their new format a test-run, I could see a situation where seven teams make the playoffs regardless, perhaps two per division, plus one overall. Then from there, a standard bracket could commence. I really don’t think the league would choose to award eight teams playoff berths because I think MLB likes the idea of a first-round bye for the best team, but I could see them using an NHL-like wild card system like this.
And you know what, while we’re making guesses about the future, let’s throw this idea out there too: drop the divisions. What if MLB hearkened back to its non-divisional past and had a nearly-balanced schedule? I’m thinking this:
– 7 games against all other 14 teams in the league (98)
– 4 interleague games with a geographic rival (102)
That adds up to 102 total games, giving MLB room to play around. They could throw in an extra game against each of their typical divisional opponents, and make it six interleague games instead, to create a total of 112 games. Or just make all six games interleague games. Or leave the schedule at 102 and give teams more days off; end the season on October 25 instead of Halloween, and get those precious days in for the playoffs. In a seven-team playoff, end the season on the 25th, then Wild Card games October 27-30, allowing the Division Series to start on November 1.
Just a thought. (And the more I think about it, the more I love this idea.)
An August Opening Day
August 1-October 31: ~13.1 weeks, or 92 days
Now things start to get crazy. You’re taking a league that would generally be getting into the playoff race at this time of year and only just starting it up. A 92-day, three-month baseball season is like an 8-week NFL season or an NBA/NHL season that starts after New Year’s Eve. It’s a marathon that got chopped down to a 20k. It would be interesting, if only from a historical perspective; and can you imagine the statistical anomalies?
If the season were to begin in August, MLB would be freaking out about how to get games in. Mid-Summer Training would be not a day more than two weeks long. Opening Day is August 16, giving teams a travel day to get to where they need to go, leaving 77 potential game days in the season. Active rosters would no doubt expand to at least 30 (honestly, this will probably be the case for any situation this year); teams probably wouldn’t get more than 6 off days unless totally necessary. If we include 13 doubleheaders, that leaves us with a schedule of 84 games. For reference, the New York-Penn League, the minor league five steps below MLB but still two steps above “not a professional league”, which is officially designated a “short season” league, plays 76 games a year.
So here’s a hypothetical schedule breakdown:
– 12 versus each division team (48)
– 30 or 33 versus non-division league teams (78 or 81)
– 3 or 6 versus a geographic interleague rival
A three-month season would be wild and crazy and amazing and terrible and fun, all at the same time.
The most interesting part of this setup might be the playoff structure. With half the games gone, MLB would have to double the number of teams in the playoffs. Each league would have 10 teams and four rounds of playoffs; I don’t even know what they’d call that first round…the Play-In Series? The The Wild Card Round would be #1 vs #7/#10, #2 vs #8/#9, #3 vs #6, and #4 vs #5.
Just for argument’s sake, if that was the case last year after 50% of games, on July 1, the AL would have seen Yankees vs Cleveland/Chicago, Minnesota vs Boston/LAA, Houston vs Oakland, and Tampa Bay vs Texas. Two of those teams had losing records at the time. Six of those teams ended with 90 or more wins, which I think is very rare (so maybe it’s not the best example).
And now that we’re in a totally bonkers scenario–a 13-week regular season–maybe MLB would decide to do something totally unique. Desperate times call for desperate measures, after all. The league could take a page out of their international tournament, the World Baseball Classic. The WBC, baseball’s answer to the FIFA World Cup, begins with twenty nations divided into four pools. Each team plays the other teams in its pool once, and the top two teams in each pool advance to the next round. Those eight teams are divided into two new pools, and they again play each opponent once. Then the top two from each pool are put into a single-elimination bracket.
With the WBC expanding to pools of five each as of next year, it would almost be appropriate to consider doing something similar for an extremely truncated baseball season. Consider each of the six MLB divisions a pool. Instead of a traditional home-and-away schedule, the league could even cut down on travel by playing groups of games in each division ballpark, moving south as the calendar turned toward the colder months, which could work even if the season begins in September. Teams would play 8 games in 10 days, one home and one away against each other team in the division, except for the true home team, and one designated away team. The “regular season” schedule might look like this:
Granted, there are pros and cons to this. Pros: teams have four off days in every 12-day cycle, the entire season lasts 58 days, it’s a decently “complete” season to determine best in the division, cities with bad teams get to host games between good teams and benefit from that revenue, host sites gradually move south to take advantage of the weather. Cons: each team only has eight real home games, each city only hosts 20 games, players are on the road for only 10 of 58 days. There are a lot of pros, but the cons are pretty weighty.
After the “pool round,” so to speak, the top three teams in each division could move on to a “league round” in each league. This could be considered an extension of the regular season or simply the start to the playoffs. These games would probably have to be played at a neutral site or sites. For instance, the NL could play theirs in Tampa and Miami, while the AL played theirs in Dallas and Houston. Teams would play a similar home-and-home schedule against the other eight teams in their pool: 16 games, with two off days, over 18 days (or 19 days, if it’s split between parks and a travel day is needed).
From there, the two leagues could take their top five teams and do a standard 1-5-7-7 playoff tournament. All in all, from Opening Day to World Series Game 7, the entire season could take just 106 days. Yes, that puts Game 7 in December with an August start, but neutral sites and domes could solve that problem, assuming the World Series matchup isn’t San Diego versus Tampa Bay.
Also, I don’t think a WBC-style season would ever happen because of record keeping concerns, but we can dream, right?
Now, if that seems really insane, then I think you won’t be phased by:
A September Opening Day
September 1-October 31: ~8.7 weeks, or 61 days
Can you even imagine? Baseball would be the very last thing on everyone’s mind at that point, and I wouldn’t blame anyone for it. The 2020 season might as well be cancelled if the postponement ever got that far. But what if MLB saw a brief window of opportunity? What if the dark clouds parted for just two months for some exhibitions?
They could try to fit in that same sort of WBC-style pool play tournament with a severely reduced second round. Or they could just lop off the second round altogether and proceed directly into a six-team bracket featuring two Wild Card games per league.
And if that doesn’t appeal to MLB, then there’s only one fair solution: a double-elimination bracket. The timing would work out perfectly since two full 15-team double-elimination brackets culminating in a World Series would take about eight rounds of play. Keep at least the earlier series to five games or fewer, and that’s definitely feasible. You don’t need a regular season when the regular season is just one long playoffs. Right?
So Major League Baseball, at this very moment, has a ton of options for how to proceed with the season once they get the all-clear sign. But really, as the coronavirus crisis drags on and worsens, their options start to dwindle. Where once a straightforwardly simple solution (pick up where the schedule left off) could have worked, it’s possible that, as the days get longer, the season gets shorter and shorter still. Where once November baseball seemed an outlier, that may become an asset to the game–and let’s not forget that December baseball has a non-zero chance of happening.
First and foremost, the league should, as the world should, turn its resources to the global pandemic at hand, and only after that should matters of sport start to deserve attention. But once that happens, and we can all breath a sigh of relief, there needs to be a rebuilding of the sports world. And I think I’ve outlined just a couple of feasible ways that that world could take shape.
Stay safe, everyone, and baseball will return before long.